RECORDED WEBINAR: NEXT GENERATION SOFTWARE RELIABILITY PREDICTION USING CAUSAL LEARNING by Robert Stoddard

Software reliability practice continues to evolve from a early focus on the modeling of software test failures for reliability estimation to the modeling of pre-test activities and software attributes for reliability prediction.
The speaker believes the next major evolutionary step in software reliability research and practice will come with the application of causal learning.
Causal learning has become a practical and exciting field rooted in matching methods employed long before Ronald Fisher created Designed Experimental methods in the 1930s and 1940s.
This webinar will share the recently matured landscape of causal learning consisting of causal discovery and causal estimation.
A brief description of causal methods, algorithms and modern publications will be shared along with recommendations on how reliability engineers might pursue learning and adopting causal learning.

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Recorded webinar: BASIC QUANTITATIVE RMA FOR THE PRACTITIONER by Tim Adams

RMA stands for Reliability, Maintainability and Availability.

This presentation targets the practitioner working basic quantitative Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA).
The presentation’s sequence is:
1. RMA concepts are described, and five central questions in RMA are stated to describe basic competencies in probabilistic RMA.
2. Each central question is illustrated with an example, and each example is worked in Microsoft Excel.
3. Three of the questions and associated examples pertain to forecasting reliability for the following scenarios:
a. New item with no downtime
b. Used item with no downtime
c. New item with scheduled downtime for idealized preventive maintenance.
4. The three mentioned reliability cases are compared as a means to summarize principles pertaining to when break-in and preventive maintenance provide a benefit to the reliability measure.
5. A process that transforms data to a math model for reliability and maintainability is described.
6. Sources for life data and tips for making a data collection program are summarized.

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Reliability analysis using Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) – WEBINAR SLIDES

On April 12, 2018 Frank Thede presented “Reliability analysis using Reliability Block Diagram (RBD)”
Below a link with the slides of this webinar.

Frank Thede brings 20+ years experience in all aspects of asset management, from capital project management, maintenance management and reliability improvement, to the end of life replacement programs. Frank is the Principal Reliability Engineering at Reliability Works. He has worked on a large variety of projects in Power Generation and Transmission, Oil and Gas, Aluminum, Marine, Transportation and Telecommunications. Frank’s extensive background in electrical engineering, combined with his specialization in reliability and maintenance management provides him with the necessary skill set and experience to effectively manage any group of physical assets.

Reliability analysis using Reliability Block Diagram (RBD).

The recorded webinar will be released later.

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Demystifying the common misconceptions about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) – WEBINAR SLIDES

On March 8, 2018 Nancy Regan presented “Demystifying the common misconceptions about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)”

Below a link with the slides.

Nancy Regan is the founder of RCMTrainingOnline.com. Nancy is a graduate of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University with a B.S. degree in Aerospace Engineering. As a U.S. Navy civilian employee for seven years, she completed Naval Aviation Maintenance Officer School. She then became Team Leader for RCM at the Naval Air Warfare Center, Aircraft Division, Lakehurst, NJ, where she instituted the RCM Program on Naval Aviation Common Support Equipment. In 2001 she left government service and founded The Force, Inc. Nancy has over 20 years’ experience of hands-on practice facilitating RCM analyses, conducting RCM training, and assisting her clients in implementing RCM programs on aircraft, manufacturing equipment, and all kinds of equipment in between. Amongst the many projects she has facilitated is the CH-47 Chinook Helicopter, the US Army’s heavy-lift helicopter. Nancy holds U.S. and foreign patents on a process for marking parts that she developed using her RCM experience. She is the author of The RCM Solution, A Practical Guide to Starting and Maintaining a Successful RCM Program. Nancy is dedicated to bringing affordable and accessible RCM training to the Maintenance and Reliability community. She resides in Huntsville, Alabama with her husband, Dennis.

Demystifying the common misconceptions about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)

The recorded webinar:

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The Reliability Division has received the Bronze award recognition for 2017

We are pleased to announce that the Reliability Division has received the Bronze award recognition for 2017. This level was achieved by meeting the good standing requirements as well as meeting or exceeding the Increase in Growth and Retention %metrics.

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An overview of the Reliability Practice – Webinar slides

Earlier this week Norma Antunano presented the webinar: An overview of the Reliability Practice

Below a link with the slides.

Norma has worked in the technology industry in different Quality and Reliability roles and is passionate about Continuous Improvement; she has led and mentored diversity of technical, business improvement and innovation projects at Medtronic, Honeywell, Broadcom and Hewlett Packard from scoping through completion with successful results. Norma has been Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Examiner for over four years, facilitates diversity of courses including Probability and Statistics for Business graduate students, and has authored papers for IPC, ECTC and ASQ. She is Systems Engineer, holds a Master in Engineering Sciences, MBA in International Management and PhD in Engineering Philosophy. Norma is region 14A ASQ Reliability Councilor and Section 1414 Education Chair, is IEEE Senior member, and is also ASQ certified CQE, CSQE, CRE and SSBB.

An overview of the Reliability Practice

The recorded webinar will be released later.

 

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Update ASQ Reliability & Risk Division

Hello ASQ Reliability & Risk Division Members and Volunteers,

As most of you are probably aware of by now, ASQ is undergoing a transformation that may significantly alter how technical communities such as the ASQ Reliability & Risk Division operate and our future state.

The ASQ Reliability & Risk Division Management Committee met recently to discuss our future in the context of this transformation and you may see some changes as a result. Our end goal is to preserve ASQ member value and the value that we bring to the reliability and risk professional community at large. And we still intend for our division to be subject matter experts and thought leaders through our webinar offerings, conference sponsorship and participation, Body of Knowledge development, and outreach.

Due to the changing IT landscape, you will see changes in the www.asqrd.org website and access to certain content to make it simple and easier to manage in the near term and as we prepare for other aspects of ASQ transformation. Some content may be deactivated in the near term as we sort out access rights since the content is under copyright by other organizations. We will not lose any of this content since we will maintain redundant storage of it but it just may be temporarily unavailable.

Specifically, past proceedings and webinar presentations will no longer be available on our website. Our archived webinar videos will still be available without a required login at Vimeo. All our videos can be accessed at https://vimeo.com/album/5072285 or by using the menu link above. Additionally, if you wish to be added to the future webinar mailing list please send us an email at webmaster @ asqrrd .org (remove the spaces).

We will continue to be a strong presence at the RAMS Symposium and will be considering collaboration with other ASQ Division sponsored conferences and external conferences to bring our message, content, and training to a wider audience with more efficiencies and impact.

Of course, to continue to provide the member value that we do, proper funding of our efforts needs to be made available since even a non-profit, member led, volunteer society and its divisions rely on funding and wise management of those funds to continue to be viable. We do have concerns about the funding impact to our division and other divisions in the Technical Communities Council that ASQ transformation may bring and we will be working to ensure that the proper amounts and mechanisms to protect those funds be put in place so that our vital mission can continue.

Best Regards,
Dan Burrows
Chair – ASQ Reliability & Risk Division

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TECH SPOT: Sample CRE questions

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1. Which answer BEST describes the events and operating conditions an item experiences from mission initiation to completion? The events may include the research and development phase, product manufacturing, warehousing, and so on, to mission completion.

A. Operational readiness; B. Mission profile; C. Design adequacy; D. Mission reliability

2. What is System Effectiveness, if Operational Readiness is 0.89, Design Adequacy is 95%, Availability is 99%, Maintainability is 0.93, and Mission Reliability is 0.99? Ebeling, p 149

A. 0.763; B. 0.881; C. 0.837; D. 0.820

3. Which of the following functions are normally accepted reliability engineering tools?

I. Failure probability density function; II. Failure rate function; III. Reliability function; IV. Conditional reliability function; V. Mean life function.

A. I and II only; B. I, II and III only; C. I, II, III and IV only; D. I, II, III, IV and V

4. An airline maintains a fleet of 4-engine aircraft. Its maintenance records show that on the average an engine fails 3 times in 10,000 operating hours with normal preventive maintenance. What is the Poisson distributed probability that 2 or more engines on an aircraft will fail during a typical flying period of 8 hours?

A. 0.000034; B. 0.0000034; C. 0.0000029; D. 0.000029

5. For the exponential model, the reliability at mean time to failure is about:

A. 37 percent; B. 50 percent; C. 67 percent; D. 73 percent

6. A plastics plant operates 8 extruders producing plastic film. Production volume requirements cannot be met if less than 6 extruders are operating. There is a .30 probability that a machine stopping malfunction will occur. What is the probability that 6 extruders can remain operating throughout the day?

A. 0.5783; B. 0.4482; C. 0.5518; D. 0.8059

7. A system is made up of four independent components in series each having a failure rate of .005 failures per hour. If time to failure is exponential, then the reliability of the system at 10 hours is:

A. 0.8187; B. 0.8860; C. 0.9512; D. 0.9802

8. What is the reliability of this system?

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Where component reliabilities are: A. 0.80; B. 0.95; C. 0.82; D. 0.85; E. 0.75

A. 0.10; B. 0.90; C. 0.95; D. 0.04

9. Which method is used to predict new device reliability during its early design stage?

A. Burn-in method; B. Part stress analysis method; C. Parts count method; D. Accelerated testing method

10. Which of the following forms of reliability data will BEST provide valuable information on product usage and reliability?

A. In-house test results. B. Independent lab results. C. Field support data. D. Quality control data.

Picture © B. Poncelet https://bennyponcelet.wordpress.com

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Free resource on Software Reliability

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We get a lot of questions on Software Reliability.

Since we listen to our members we are in the works of setting up more info on this topic.

For the time being we can redirect you to a great free resource you can access on http://www.cse.cuhk.edu.hk/~lyu/book/reliability/

This is the Handbook of Software Reliability Engineering – Edited by Michael R. Lyu Published by IEEE Computer Society Press and McGraw-Hill Book Company

Software Reliability Handbook

Picture © B. Poncelet https://bennyponcelet.wordpress.com

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A Long List of Reasons to Perform an ALT and The Selection of Applied Stresses

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A Long List of Reasons to Perform an ALT:

A. Confirm a minimum life estimate or time to first failure of a large population.

B. Look at variability or robustness of the manufacturing process.

C. Determine whether screening will be required for production to meet customer requirements or market goals.

D. Look at the impact of various customer environments, such as duty cycle, on the performance or ultimate life of a system.

E. Determine if customer rough handling, customer abuse or customer misuse is a significant factor in the expected life of a product in the field.

F. Identify the impact of software redundancy to hardware and hardware redundancy to the proper and continuous system operation.

G. Determine if little-used, emergency or “one-shot products” will operate properly when called upon to do so. This is especially true of warning systems or emergency systems such as fire alarms or extinguishers.

H. Show that no dangerous situations exist for a product. This covers all aspects of liability, hardware and software warnings and system safe operating conditions and fail-safe modes.

I. Estimate the acceleration factor for a component or system with respect to a specific set of customer stresses.

J. Demonstrate successful customer operation and maintenance across the many divergent customer environments and customer use conditions.

 

The Selection of Applied Stresses:

A) Select standard environmental stresses, including items such as high temperature, low temperature, random vibration, dust or humidity.

B) Select cyclic stress conditions, such as temperature cycling, humidity cycling, stress cycling or sine wave vibration.

C) Select stresses that are frequently called out in the Military Standards and have been found useful to demonstrate conformance to stringent military customer environments.

D) Select stresses based upon tradition for the market or business. These may be unique to an industry or situation.

E) Select stresses based upon the expected customer environment or industry. This includes consideration of worst-case customers, abusive customers and customer who fail to perform suggested maintenance.

F) Select stresses based upon known or anticipated failure modes or physics of failure for critical components or system functions. Such stresses are thought to dominate the operation of a system

G) Select stresses based upon customer safety or liability considerations.

H) Select stresses based upon long term degradation modes such as corrosion or material degradation.

 

Published in Practical Weibull Analysis Techniques – Fifth Edition by James A. McLinn Published by  The Reliability Division of ASQ – January 2010 ISBN 0277-9633 (available as free download for ASQ Reliability Division Members)

Picture © B. Poncelet https://bennyponcelet.wordpress.com

 

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