Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation

Taught by Jim Breneman

Days :Thursday, July 30, 2015, 8:00am – 5:00 pm

• I. A Monte Carlo method can be loosely described as a statistical method that utilizes sequences of random numbers as data.

• II. Background: Historical perspective; Why use Monte Carlo Simulation?

• III. Random Numbers and how they are used.
  a. Theory
  b. Pseudo random numbers.
  c. Generating points from a know (or estimated) distribution- either discrete or continuous
  d. Examples

• IV. Monte Carlo Simulation outline
  a. Obtain or assume probability distributions (CDF’s)
  b. Program model or computer with random numbers.
  c. Exercise model for 10,000 or more trials.
  d. Sampling rule - a prescription for sampling from the specified CDF’s.
  e. Description of interrelationships of variables (usually through use of the engineering model).
  f. Compare statistical output with reality…
  g. Exercise the model.( Modify model for new change)

• V. Example uses to include:
  a. Forecasting Manufacturing Demand
  b. Calculating Load
  c. Tolerancing
  d. Calculating Max Stress
  e. Safety Risk Analysis
  f. Numerous other Engineering, Project & Business examples

Students will receive a CD of all material used(.pdf’s, .xls,.doc) and a certificate for 0.8 RU’s after successful completion.
Student must bring: Attendees are expected to bring their own laptop computers. While the course will concentrate on the content-not any particular software, a software package is necessary to facilitate learning of the material. EXCEL, Minitab will be used. In addition, Crystal Ball ™ will be introduced. If attendees do not have Minitab installed on their computer, a 30-day free trial can be downloaded from www.minitab.com ; but please make note not to download and install the software more than 30 days prior to the course. A 15-day free trial of Crystal Ball™ can also Be downloaded from url:

http://www.oracle.com/technetwork/middleware/crystalball/downloads/index.html?ssSourceSiteId=ocomen

Biography of Speaker

Jim Breneman worked for Pratt & Whitney, a division of United Technologies for almost 35 years before retiring in 2008. At retirement, he was an ACE mentor, as well as the Manager of Engineering Technical Excellence. Jim formed and guided P&W’s Engineering Technical University, and he was responsible for all P&W Research & Development Agreements with Universities, as well as the P&W Information System & Library. Jim is a Pratt &Whitney Fellow in Reliability & Statistics.
Jim has been a member of SAE since 1986 and is an SAE Fellow in Reliability. He also is a former Chair of Sections Board Member and a former Chair of the SAE G-11 Reliability, Maintainability and Supportability Committee. In addition, Jim has been a member of: American Statistical Association since 1977, the Society of Reliability Engineers since 2000, and the American Society for Quality since 2007. He has taught and developed Quality & Statistics curricula in various forms for industry and academia.He received a B.S. in Mathematics from UNC-Chapel Hill and an M.S. in Applied Mathematics from NC State University -with a minor in Statistics and Computer Science.